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JMMB Research

Company Insights

Company Insights provide an analysis of the periodic performance of locally traded companies, These reports will be based on the companies' half-year results. Investors can use these publications as guidelines to make more informed investment decisions within the local landscape. 

Research Articles

 

Local Market Overview

In 2021, stocks trading on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange (TTSE) returned their best performance since 2011, despite lockdowns restrictions and lower economic activity as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

The TTSE measures its performance by four (4) indices:

  • The Composite Index measures the performance of all ordinary shares listed on the First Tier

market: -

The value of the Composite Index of the TTSE increased by 13.1% in 2021.

  • The All T&T Index measures the performance of ordinary shares for local companies only: -

The All T& T Index returned 17.61% for the period December 31st, 2020, to December 31st, 2021.

  • The Cross Listed Index measures the performance of ordinary shares listed on multiple stock exchanges: -

The cross-listed stocks are FirstCaribbean International Bank, which is based in Barbados, the Jamaica-based NCB Financial Group, GraceKennedy, Guardian Holdings Limited and the JMMB Group. This Index, returned 3% year-over-year.

  • The SME Index measures the performance of ordinary shares for all companies listed on the Small Medium Enterprises (SME) Market: -

The SME Index declined 33.1% for the period December 31st, 2020, to December 31st, 2021.

Source: Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange (TTSE)

 

 

Best and Worst Performing Stocks on the TTSE for 2021

Source: Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange (TTSE)

 

Local Outlook:

 

The pandemic-induced restrictions such as global travel constraints, social distancing and health and safety protocols continued in 2021. These restrictions led to a slowdown in economies resulting in major supply-chain disruptions across the world and consequently, leading to increased levels of inflation. Domestically, the T&T economy is estimated to contract by 1% in 2021 but is projected to rebound in 2022 by 5.4%. However, with the Omicron variant looming and the possible emergence of new variants, this has heightened uncertainty both locally and internationally. As such, JMMB Investments projects the overall direction of the TTCI and TTALL to be positive but more contained, increasing by 3.5% and 2.2% respectively.

 

 

By Sector:

 

Banking

  • This sector advanced 7.85% in 2021.
  • Earnings in the sector for 2021 was mostly positive, with the sector recording EPS growth of 40.8%.
  • Revenue for the sector improved by 2.2% year on year (YOY), operating margins improved marginally by 1.43%.
  • In August 2021, Republic Financial Holdings (RFHL) entered the Insurance space under the subsidiary Republic Evolve Limited, effective September 15th, 2021, the Company’s name was changed to Republic Life Insurance Limited.
  • Additionally, The First Citizens Group strengthened its relationship with Barita Investments Ltd and its parent, Cornerstone Financial Holdings Ltd: -
  • Between September 2020 and September 2021, First Citizens Investment Services (FCIS), a wholly owned subsidiary of the First Citizens Group, acquired a total of 90,795,154 shares in Barita Investments Ltd, equal to 7.43% of the company.
  • FCIS spent an estimated US$40 million to acquire the shares that made it the second largest shareholder in Barita, after its parent Cornerstone Financial.
  • Furthermore, at the end of Q3 2021 Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited (SBTT) announced a special dividend of 85 cents per share to shareholders on record as at September 27th, 2021.
  • Moving forward, we expect to see positive returns in this sector driven by further growth and expansion strategies. We project this sector to advance by 2.3% in 2022.

 

Conglomerates

  • This sector showed the greatest appreciation in 2021, advancing around 46.2%. Its performance was largely boosted by MASSY’s price appreciation which came off the heels of their announcements to cross-list the stock on the Jamaican Stock Exchange and engage in a 20-to-1 stock split. The stock’s price climbed over 70% in 2021.
  • MASSY’s cross-listing is set for January 2022 and the proposed Record Date for the share split is currently March 11th 2022. Until both of these events pass, we expect further volatility for the stock. The cross-listing will likely continue to attract Trinidadian investors as they search for the opportunity to sell the stock on the JSE to gain USD, and the share split will likely follow the trend which has been seen historically where it causes higher demand for the stock due to investor psychology factors. However, later in the year, we expect its volatility will settle.
  • Overall, revenue, EPS and Operating profit margins for the sector improved. Moving forward, we expect the positive momentum seen for its fundamental metrics to continue. We project this sector to advance a further 4.7% in 2022.

 

Non-Banking Finance

  • This sector advanced 21.96% in 2021. Earnings in the sector for 2021 was positive, with the sector recording EPS growth of 19.1%. Overall, revenue and operating profit margins for the sector improved.
  • Ansa Merchant Bank Limited (AMBL) entered the commercial banking space through the acquisition of Bank of Baroda. Additionally, AMBL has entered into an agreement which will allow TATIL to own 100% of Colfire. Through this acquisition, AMBL is expected to be the market leader, by market share, in the T&T insurance market.
  • On March 9th, 2021, Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) announced its decision to pursue a cross listing of its shares on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), this cross listing was effected on May 5th, 2021.
  • Additionally, the Directors of JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) approved the recommendation to execute a share buyback programme beginning on April 1st, 2022. This programme is intended to be used as a tool for JMMBGL to support shareholder value and will be funded by the Company's cash flows.
  • Furthermore, National Enterprises Limited (NEL) share price appreciated 7% year-over-year. In 2021, NEL returned to profitability, driven by increases in the fair market value of NEL’s portfolio of investee companies which reflects the turnaround in commodity prices as markets recover from the impact of the pandemic, increased supply of natural gas and energy demand in key commercial and industrial sectors locally.
  • Moving forward, we expect to see positive returns in this sector driven by these initiatives. We project this sector to advance by 5% in 2022.

 

Energy

  • This sector advanced 22.94% in 2021. Overall, revenue, EPS and operating profit margins for the sector improved.
  • The improved performance in this sector was driven by higher Mont Belvieu natural gas liquids (NGLs) prices as energy markets recovered from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Furthermore, PPGPL has successfully advanced its marketing efforts to renew key sales contracts in the Eastern Caribbean market. These efforts, coupled with favourable NGL prices and demand, will support shareholder value.
  • Moving forward, we expect to see positive returns in this sector driven by these initiatives and as markets continue to recover. We project this sector to advance by 5% in 2022.

 

Trading

  • This sector had the second highest advancement for 2021. Its 28.3% weighted average return was primarily driven by a strong price appreciation in AGL. While PHL’s price decreased around 7.9%, AGL’s increased 35.5% on the year. Also, LJWB advanced 22.7% but its low market cap compared to the other 2 stocks left its impact on the sector’s movement minimal.
  • In terms of performance, AGL and LJWB showed increases in EPS and operating margins, but PHL showed declines in both. Overall, the sector’s EPS shrunk 10.3% while its operating margin remained fairly similar.
  • Moving forward, we expect AGL’s business model to continue performing well if market conditions remain similar. PHL’s model has the potential to rebound, but that would depend on how citizens respond to their marketing strategies.
  • We project an advancement of 8.9% for this sector in 2022.

 

Manufacturing 1

  • Manufacturing 1 declined around 6.3% for 2021 primarily due to a strong price depreciation seen in WCO’s stock. Investors responded to the company’s marginal decline in earnings, as long-term outlooks on their business model weakened.
  • NFM also showed weakness in its fundamental metrics as the company dealt with rising costs of wheat and a variety of supply chain issues. In 2021, it maintained fixed prices and absorbed the brunt of the costs but there has since been an adjustment in the company’s approach. At the start of 2022, there were increases in the sale price of its products. While this will not eliminate the company’s challenges, we expect that it will lead to healthier margins.
  • The sector’s strongest appreciation came from Angostura Holdings Limited, which was spurred by the potential seen for their business model. In 2021, the company increased its revenue gained from exports through gaining ground in international markets.
  • Another company from the sector which showed strength in business model was UCL, with an approximate 57.7% increase in the company’s EPS YoY despite a decrease in their revenue.
  • Overall, the sector showed a decline in both EPS and operating margins, with the largest declines in both coming from NFM. We project some rebound for this sector and an advancement of 6% for 2022.

 

Manufacturing 2

  • TCL had price appreciation of around 34.1% in 2021. Its movement came after its primary competitor, Rock Hard Cement, was pushed out of the market through increases in tariffs.
  • Since then, the company’s majority shareholder, Cemex, has made some adjustments to its business model. Primarily, there was a new cost introduced for TCL and its subsidiary, CCC, that led to negative investor sentiments towards the majority shareholder. Moving into 2022, we expect that this negative sentiment will linger unless TCL shows an ability to produce value for minority shareholders.
  • In 2021, the company showed a decrease in its operating margin but an increase in its revenue. Moving forward, we expect that the resumption of public works in Trinidad and Tobago will support their revenue for 2022, but the company’s operating efficiency will likely be the determinant for whether they are as profitable as they can be.

 

 

International Market Overview

  • For 2021, the U.S. stock market showed a strong performance amidst the pandemic. The S&P 500 climbed 26.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 18.7% and 21.4% respectively. This completed the third year of consecutive returns for U.S. stocks, with major indexes closing near record highs. Off the steep increase in oil prices, the energy sector showed the highest returns. Following energy was real estate and then tech, financials, and consumer discretionary.

 

  • Throughout the year, we saw investors exhibit confidence in the markets as they repeatedly brushed off news that in previous years would have caused significant declines in the markets. The S&P 500 hit a record of 70 all-time highs in 2021. Before 2021, the year with the closest number of all-time highs being recorded was 1995. What adds the most context to the spectacle of a performance may be that this record-setting year had a contested presidential election, an assault on the Capitol, historically high inflation, a range of supply chain disruptions and of course, a continuation of the pandemic.

 

International Outlook

Given no major macroeconomic or geopolitical event, we expect that the U.S. stock market’s spectacle-like performance will continue through 2022 to a lesser degree. Threats to its continuation will largely include the same threats seen from 2021. A sustainable performance in 2022 will need to be supplemented by solutions to the U.S.’ current inflation problems and some ease up in supply chains. The year ended with their Consumer Price Index showing its highest annual increase since the 1980’s, highlighting how much of a challenge it may be to deal with. The Fed will likely be key in this issue as their choice to keep interest rates low and pump billions of dollars into markets in 2021 led to the high inflation. Their strategy to reduce this inflation will be pivotal, as investors’ response to it will influence the trajectory for the markets in 2022. Wall Street analysts have made predictions for the US Equity markets in 2022 ranging from -5% to 14%. Below is a table showing the organizations and the implied movement from their 2022 S&P 500 targets, which averages at 7.2%.

 

Analysts Estimates for S&P 500 2022 Targets

 

RFHL - Quarterly Update

For the quarter ended December 31st, 2021, Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL) recorded a 1.2% increase in profit attributable to equity holders to $395.9 million from $391.1 million in the corresponding prior period. For the period, Net Interest Income (NII) increased by 1.6%, driven by a 1.65% increase in advances.

Please see the attached report for more details.

 


CIF - Quarterly Update

CIF is currently trading at a 7.21% discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV) as RFHL's share price continues to trade at fairly high levels despite COVID 19 measures affecting its financial performance. However, as at December 31st, 2021, RFHL share price increased to $140.16 from $136.31 resulting in an unrealized gain of $154.2 million.

Please see the attached report for more details.


 

SCGFH - Quarterly Update

For the quarter ended December 31st, 2021, First Citizens Group Financial Holdings (FCGFH) recorded a 4.4% increase in profit after tax to $181.6 million from $173.9 million in the corresponding prior period. However, Net Interest Income (NII) fell by 5.2%, driven by a fall in loans to customers (↓2.3%) and loan notes (↓49.3%) respectively. Nevertheless, the increase in profit after tax was driven by an increase in other income (↑24.8%) and impairment gains.

Please see the attached report for more details.


 

SBTT Year-End Update

 

For the year ended October 31st, 2021, Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited (SBTT) recorded a 15.9% increase in PAT to $603.5 million from $520.8 million in the prior period. This increase was driven by lower net impairment losses on loans combined with effective cost management strategies.

 

Notwithstanding this, total revenues fell by 2.7% to $1.73 billion from $1.78 billion in the prior period. This decline was driven by a $94 million or 7% decline in net interest income largely due to lower loan balances impacting both retail and commercial customer segments.

 

In September, JMMB’s Research Department assigned a Marketperform rating to the stock with a target price of $59.37.

 

In the coming year, we expect the Bank to report increased earnings and dividends. Therefore, we maintain our rating on SBTT at Marketperform and revise our target price to $65.58 with a fair value range of $62.30-$68.86.

 

Please see the attached report for more details.


 

UCL-Q3 2021 Update

For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) realized Profit after Tax of $21.36 million, a 101.6% increase YoY. This improvement came despite a 26.8% decrease in revenue. A basic EPS of $0.81 was recorded at the end of the period.

 

Similar to the previous 2 quarters, UCL has shown significant bottom-line improvement. Their stronger profit margins were driven by the new Home Care business model, reductions in distribution and warehousing costs, and growth in Beauty and Personal Care sales. However, during the quarter, the company faced logistics challenges which led to some of their shipments being re-phased into Q4.

 

In April 2021, JMMB’s research department assigned an OUTPERFORM rating on UCL with a price target of $21.36. UCL’s price at that time was $16.33 and it has since increased to $16.35.

 

Due to their financial performance being in line with our expectations, we maintain our rating on UCL at OUTPERFORM and revise our target price to $21.28 with a fair value range from $20.22 - $22.35.

 

Please see the attached report for more details.

 


NEL - September 2021

For the six-month period ended September 30th, 2021, NEL recorded an increase in profit before tax to $848 million from a $106.8 million loss position in the prior period. This improvement was primarily driven by an increase in the fair market value in some of NEL’s portfolio of investee companies. These gains reflect the turnaround in commodity prices as markets recover from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as, increased supply of natural gas and energy demand in key commercial and industrial sectors locally.

 

In September 2021, JMMB’s Research Department issued an UNDERPERFORM rating on NEL.

 

However, based on NEL’s performance we revise our rating to MARKETPERFORM and our target price to $3.27 from $2.85 with a fair value range of $2.94 - $3.60.

 

Please see the attached report for more details.


 

NFM - Q3 2021 Update

For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, National Flour Mills (NFM) generated a revenue of $319.7 million. This was a 3.2% increase year over year. Profit after tax, though, decreased 79.7% and there was a decrease in EPS of 82.4% YoY.

 

NFM has continued to face the challenges of unfavourable market conditions. Year to date, they have dealt with supply chain issues and shortages in the global wheat market which have led to rising costs of production for the company. Their commitment to maintaining prices for Trinidad and Tobago’s citizens have resulted in the company bearing the brunt of these costs.

 

In January, JMMB’s research department issued an Underperform on NFM. Its share price has since decreased 11.7% to $1.87.

 

As our outlook remains similar, we maintain our rating on NFM at UNDERPERFORM with a new target price of $1.53 and a fair value range from $1.46 - $1.61.

 

Please see the attached report for more details.


 

 

NGL - September 2021

For the nine-month period ended September 30 2021, TTNGL recorded a 347.8% increase in profit after tax to $134.1 million from $29.95 million in the prior year. This translates into a basic EPS of $0.87 at the end of the period. According to the Chairman's statement, the improved performance for the period was due to higher profitability from TTNGL’s investment in Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited (PPGPL). This enhanced performance of PPGPL continued to be driven primarily by higher Mont Belvieu natural gas liquids (NGLs) prices as energy markets recovered from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

With a revised target price of $19.79 and a fair value range of $19.81-$21.77, we maintain an OUTPERFORM rating on NGL.

Please see attached the NGL Valuation Report.


 

GHL - September 2021

For the nine-month period ended September 30, 2021, GHL recorded a 0.8% decline in PAT to TT$472.5 million from TT$476.2 million in the corresponding prior period translating into a basic EPS of TT$1.97. This performance reflects a US$10 million loss in Guardian Re, GHL's Bermuda based reinsurance company. However, Gross Written Premiums (GWP) increased 7.6% to TT$5.4 billion from TT$4.9 billion driven by the integration of the life insurance and annuities portfolio acquired by Guardian Life Limited from NCB Insurance Company Limited. Despite the increase in GWP, the Life Insurance segment in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago continue to experience pandemic induced challenges.

With a revised target price of TT$32.40/JM$734.18 and fair value range of TT$30.78-TT$34.02 (JM$697.47-JM$770.89), we maintain our rating on GHL at OUTPERFORM.

Please see attached the GHL Quarterly Update.


 

CIF - September 2021

For period ended September 30, 2021, Republic Financial holdings (RFHL) shares accounted for 90% of total assets in the Clico Investment Fund (CIF), the GORTT 2037 Bond accounted for 9% and the remainder of assets in the fund comprise interest receivables and liquid assets. Given the high level of concentration of RFHL shares in CIF, it is likely that any change in the fair value of RFHL shares will likely affect the fair value of CIF.

In August 2021, JMMB’s research department issued an Outperform rating on CIF with a price target of $30.06.

Given RFHL’s financial performance, we maintain a rating of OUTPERFORM with a revised target price of $29.60 and a fair value range of $28.12 - $31.08.

Please see the attached report for more details.

 


RFHL - September 2021

For the year ended September 30 2021, Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL) recorded a 44.7% increase in profit attributable to equity holders to $1.308 billion from $904.1 million in the prior year. According to the Chairman's statement, this improved results reflect the impact of the Group's acquisition of the British Virgin Islands (BVI) operations, lower provisions for loan losses and general improvement in operating profitability in Ghana and Cayman.

In August 2021, JMMB’s Research Department, assigned a MARKETPERFORM rating on RFHL with a target price of $130.86.

We maintain our rating at MARKETPERFORM and adjust our target price to $128.48. The decrease in the target price is based on lower than expected earnings for the Bank for the year ending 2021.

Please see the attached report for more details.


 

A Glimpse at Responsible Investing

The 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) was a significant effort by world leaders to combat Climate Change. In these times, we find greater importance in cutting methane emissions, reducing deforestation and moving towards net zero emissions.

While the world leaders act on a macro level, we can also act responsibly by choosing where we invest. “Responsible Investment” is a form of investing that considers environmental, social and governance factors, along with the long-term health and stability of the market as a whole.

At JMMB, we would like to offer you the opportunity to learn about and engage in Responsible Investment. Please see the article attached to learn more about its viability and utility.

Read More...


 

AHL Q3 2021

For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) recorded a profit after tax of $92.3 million, a 14.4% increase over the comparable period for the previous year. This translated to a 15.4% increase in EPS year over year to $0.45.

For Q3, AHL’s local demand was slow but their international demand was high. They recorded an increase in revenue of 6.8% YoY to $613 million. Specifically, in the Australasia and UK regions, AHL is enjoying a higher demand for their bitters, Chill and LLB products.

Read More...


 

WCO Q3 2021

For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, West Indian Tobacco Company (WCO) realized a profit after tax of $270.22 million, a 10.4% decrease when compared to the previous year. This translates to a basic EPS of $1.07 at the end of the period.

The decrease followed the expectations we previously outlined. The combined pressures of substitute products in the market, social restrictions, and higher duties and taxes on WCO’s products have shown their impact.

Despite this, WCO has taken the decision to pay a second interim dividend...

Read More...


 

TCL Q3 2021

For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, Trinidad Cement Limited (TCL) recorded a Profit after Tax of $60.58 million, a 23.9% improvement over the comparative period in 2020.

Despite the year to date improvement, TCL recorded a net loss for Q3 of $23.2 million. This came as a result of high expenses due to maintenance works during the period and lower revenue generated from their Jamaican subsidiary due to adverse weather conditions.

Also, during Q3, TCL made net debt repayments of $27 million and announced their entering into an agreement with CEMEX which would take effect from FY 2022...

Read More...


 

PHL Q3 2021

For the nine months ended August 31, 2021, Prestige Holdings Limited (PHL) realized loss before tax of $37.7 million, a further decrease when compared to the previous year. This translates to a loss per share of $0.50 at the end of the period.

Year over year, the group’s sales decreased 26% for the period. This comes as no surprise as the restaurant sector was completely closed for 70 days through Q2 and Q3. Even after reopening, dine-in channels remained closed and restaurants operated with reduced opening hours.

Read More...


 

NEL Valuation Report

NEL is an investment holding company incorporated on August 27th, 1999 by the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GORTT) to consolidate the Government’s shareholding in selected State Enterprises and facilitate public offerings on the TTSE.

In FY2021, NEL’s revenue plummeted 92.9% from its 2017 levels, though, improving by 6.4% to $33.3 million from $31.3 million in the prior year, boosted by an 8.9% increase in dividend income to $25.9 million from $23.8 million in FY2020.

Read More...


 

Budget Review FY2021/2022

We believe that it is important for you as an investor to keep a finger on the pulse of the investing landscape. Our goal is to assist you in doing so.

 

Please see attached our Budget Review for Fiscal Year 2021/2022.

For investors, there were signals of upcoming market activity:

  • The finance minister announced an Initial Public Offering of the shares in the Trinidad and Tobago Mortgage Bank
  • Plans for the divestment of some of the Government’s holding in FCB were announced
  • The finance minister’s projections for the energy sector showed a rebound. Although the sector contracted through 2020 and 2021, the outlook which was highlighted showed favourable expansion from 2023 onward. With higher levels of production at higher prices, as projected, companies like TTNGL have the potential to increase the value they offer shareholders.

Feel free to contact us with any queries or interests arising.


 

WCO Q2 2021

For the six months ended June 30, 2021, West Indian Tobacco Company (WCO) realized profit after tax (PAT) of $187.44 million, a decrease of 3.2% when compared to the previous year. This translates to a basic EPS of $0.74 at the end of the period.

The excise duty implemented by the Minister of Finance in the 2020/2021 budget has continued to reduce WCO’s profit margin. There was an increased duty on locally manufactured tobacco products as well as an increased duty on imported tobacco.

Read More...

 

PHL Q2 2021

For the six months ended May 31, 2021, Prestige Holdings Limited (PHL) realized a loss before tax of $19.78 million, a further deterioration from the previous year. This translates to a loss per share of $0.28 at the end of the period.

Since the onset of the pandemic, PHL has struggled to generate revenue as country-wide lockdown measures have directly impacted their businesses. Although restrictions are being drawn back with the progression of the vaccination program, the lack of a confirmed 2022 Carnival celebration is unfavourable for PHL as that period usually provides a significant boost to their earnings.

Read More...

 

SBTT July 2021

For the nine-month period ended July 31, 2021, SBTT recorded a 26.1% increase in PAT to $461.8 million from $366.1 million in the prior period. This increase was driven by effective cost management strategies combined with lower expected credit losses.

Notwithstanding this, total revenues fell by 3.1% to $1.30 billion from $1.34 billion in the prior period. This decline was driven by a 6% or $60 million fall in net interest income as a result of lower loan balances as both the retail and commercial segments were negatively impacted by the pandemic.

Read More...

 

 

UCL Q2 2021

For the six months ended June 30, 2021, Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) realized Profit After Tax (PAT) of $15.5 million, a 161% increase year over year. This increase in PAT came despite a 5.6% decrease in revenue.

 

The stronger profit margin was driven by the new Home Care business model, reductions in distribution costs, and growth in Beauty and Personal Care sales.

 

In April, 2021, JMMB’s research department assigned an Outperform rating on UCL with a target price of $21.36. The price at that time was $16.33 and it has since moved to $16.24.

Read More...

 

 

FCI July 2021

For the nine month period ended July 31st, 2021 FirstCaribbean International Bank (FCI) realized a profit after tax of US$90.6 million from a loss position of US$43.0 million in the corresponding prior period. The increase in profitability was mainly driven by lower provisions for credit losses.

Read More...

 

CIF Q3 2021

For period ended June 30, 2021, Republic Financial holdings (RFHL) shares accounted for 90% of total assets in the Clico Investment Fund (CIF), the GORTT 2037 Bond accounted for 9% and the remainder of assets in the fund comprise interest receivables and liquid assets. Given the high level of concentration of RFHL shares in CIF, it is likely that any change in the fair value of RFHL shares will likely affect the fair value of CIF.

Read More...

 

RFHL Q3 2021

For the nine-month period ended June 30 2021, Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL) recorded a 33.8% increase in profit attributable to equity holders to $1.03 billion from $774.3 million in the prior year. According to the Chairman's statement, this improved results reflect the impact of the Group's acquisition of the British Virgin Islands (BVI) operations in June 2020, lower provisions for loan losses and general improvement in operating profitability in Ghana and Cayman National Corporation.

Read More...

 

FIRST Q3 2021

For the nine-month period ended June 30 2021, First Citizens Bank Limited (FIRST) recorded a 4.5% increase in profit after tax to $487.4 million from $466.6 million in the prior year. According to the Chairman's report, this improved results was driven by...

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AHL Q2 - 2021 Update

For the six months ended June 30, 2021, Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) realised Profit after Tax of $55.56 million, a 36.1% increase over the comparable period for the previous year. This translates to an EPS of $0.27. 

While Total revenue increased 3.3%, the larger increase in profit margins was due to a more consistent demand which allowed for smoother operations. Also, the group has seen increase in...

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NFM Q2 - 2021

For the six months ended June 30, 2021, National Flour Mills generated Revenue equal to $210.1 million. This is a 1.6% increase over the previous year’s comparable period. However, the recorded Profit after Tax of $2.145 million represents a 84.3% decrease year over year.

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TCL Q2 - 2021

For the six months ended June 30, 2021, TCL recorded a Profit after Tax of $83.8 million, a 703% improvement over the comparative period in 2020.

This improvement was driven by a strong performance from their Jamaican subsidiary although market conditions declined in Guyana, Trinidad & Tobago and Barbados. Moving forward, we expect TCL to...

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MASSY - Q3 2021

For the nine months ended June 30, 2021, Massy Holdings Limited realized a Profit after Tax from continuing operations of $432.07 million. This is a 21.8% increase when compared to the period for the previous year. The increase was driven by growth in their Financial Services, Integrated Retail and Gas Products business lines.

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NGL - Q2 2021

For the six month period ended June 30 2021, TTNGL recorded a 475.6% increase in profit after tax to $83.6 million from $14.5 million in the prior year. This translates into a basic EPS of $0.54 at the end of the period. According to the Chairman's statement...

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GHL AS AT AUGUST 2021

For the six month period ended June 30, 2021 , GHL recorded a 69.5 % increase in PAT to $260.3 million from $153.6 million in the prior period. This translates into a basic EPS of $1.10 at the end of the period. Gross Written Premiums increased 6.0% to $3.7 billion from $3.5 billion driven by...

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TCL VALUATION REPORT 2021

From 2017, the group’s total revenue has averaged around TTD$1.7 billion. For the 3 years prior, it averaged higher at around $2 billion. This trend reflects the fact that TCL’s revenue is highly dependent on the macroeconomic factors of the countries they supply. When the economies were doing well and had aggressive fiscal policies, TCL’s revenue increased. Surprisingly, though, total revenue didn’t decrease between FY 2019 and FY 2020.

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SBTT QUATERLY UPDATE

For the six month period ended April 30, 2021 , SBTT recorded a 16% increase in PAT to $304.6 million from $262.1 million in the prior period. This translates into a basic EPS of $1.72 (Trailing EPS of $3.19) at the end of the period. This increase was driven by effective cost management strategies combined with...

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FCI Quaterly Update - April 2021

For the six month period ended April 30th, 2021 (Q2 2021), FirstCaribbean International Bank (FCI) realized a profit attributable to equity holders of US$53.5 million from a loss position of US$58.3 million in the corresponding prior period . This improvement led to a basic EPS of US$0.033 at the end of the period. The increase in profitability was driven by...

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Guardian Holding Limited Valuation Report - May 2021

In May 2019, GHL and NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) and its wholly owned subsidiary, NCB Global Holdings Limited (NCBGH), started a new chapter with the successful completion of the acquisition of 74,230,750 shares in GHL. The acquisition, one of the largest of its kind within the region, resulted in NCB holding more than 62% of the shares of GHL. This ground-breaking move was fully aligned to GHL’s growth strategy, representing another significant step in expanding the Company’s reach regionally and internationally. 

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2020 Investor Review and Outlook

Most stocks listed on the local exchanges retreated in 2020. The Trinidad & Tobago Composite Index (TTCI) posted negative returns of -9.9% for the period. This was driven by declines across the board as the market was rattled by the COVID-19 prevention measures which was implemented by the government.  The All Trinidad & Tobago Index (TTALL) declined by -5.2% for HY2020. This was driven by declines across the board, as only 4 stocks have posted positive price returns for the period. 

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2020-2021 Budget Review

On October 5, 2020 the Finance Minister Colm Imbert presented the 2020/21 Budget to the Parliament of Trinidad and Tobago. The Budget took action on the difficult decisions that was a long time in coming, resulting from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and its detrimental effects on both the revenue and expenditure side of Government affairs. The Minister of Finance projected a fiscal deficit of $8.2 billion on the back of $41.4 billion in revenue, while stating that last year’s deficit was $16.8 billion, in excess of the $5.3 billion projected in the 2019/20 Budget presentation.

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Angostura Holdings Limited Q2 2020 - Revenue Up but Profits Down (August 2020)

Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) recorded Revenue for the six months ended June 30th, 2020 (2Q-2020) of $358.5 million, a 3.5% ($12.1m) improvement over the comparative period in 2019. According to the Chairman's report, the growth in revenue was due to an increase in local rum sales, up 11%, and Bitters sales to the North American Market, up 8.4% when compared to 2Q-2019.

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Angostura Holdings Limited Q3 2020 Update - (November 2020)

Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) recorded Revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 (3Q-2020) of $574.1 million, a 7.1% ($37.9m) improvement over the comparative period in 2019. According to the Chairman's report, the growth in revenue was driven by an increase in local rum sales, up 17.4%, and Bitters sales up 4.6% when compared to 3Q-2020. Revenue from LLB, Bulk and the "Other" segments declined by 18.9%, 22.7% and 6.6% respectively.

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Angostura Holdings Limited Investor Update

In 2020, JMMB Investments commenced coverage of Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL). As part of JMMB Investments valuation process, JMMB Investments Analyst David Paul reached out to AHL’s investor relations department requesting answers, clarifications and management's take on the direction of the company.

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Angostura Holdings Limited Valuation Report

Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) is a limited liability Group incorporated and domiciled in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. The Group has its primary listing on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange. It is a holding Group whose subsidiaries are engaged in the manufacture and sale of rum, ANGOSTURA® aromatic bitters and other spirits, and the bottling of beverage alcohol and other beverages on a contract basis. 
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The Calypso Macro-Index Fund Report (October 2020)

CALYP is a closed-end mutual fund, denominated in TT dollars, which was launched on January 8, 2016 and is scheduled to terminate on November 30, 2025. Twenty million (20,000,000) units were offered to the public at an offer price of TT$25.00 per unit.

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Unilever Caribbean Limited Valuation Report 2021

Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) is a subsidiary of Unilever Overseas Holdings AG. The local subsidiary operates in three segments: Personal Care, Home Care and Food.

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Massy Update-  January 2021

For the Year Ended September 30th 2020, MASSY realized profit attributable to equity holders of $408.5MM, a decrease of 12% or $55.4MM when compared to the prior year. This captures only the results of MASSY's continuing operations, as MASSY exited its Information Technology and Communication (ITC) businesses prior to their financial year-end. This move further streamlines the Group around its core portfolios, namely Integrated Retail (IR), Motors
and Machines (M&M) and Gas Products (GP). It should be noted that all 3 portfolios saw increases in operating profits year on year despite major disruptions to their operations during the course of the year due to covid 19 induced lockdowns. 

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Investor Review and Outlook-  January 2021

Most stocks listed on the local exchanges retreated in 2020. The Trinidad & Tobago Composite Index (TTCI) posted negative returns of -9.9% for the period. This was driven by declines across the board as the market was rattled by the COVID-19 prevention measures which was implemented by the government. The All Trinidad & Tobago Index (TTALL) declined by -5.2% for HY2020. This was driven by declines across the board, as only 4 stocks have posted positive price returns for the period. National Flour Mills Limited (NFM) was the best performing stock for the period, advancing by 59.3%.

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Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL)- Valuation Report-  January 2021

At the end of financial year (FY) 2020 interest from loans and advances accounted for 60% of the Group’s revenue, fees and commissions accounted for 19.2%, exchange earnings added 7.3%, interest from investment securities contributed 6.4%, while interest from liquid assets and other income comprised the remaining 7.1%.

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Trinidad and Tobago NFM Limited (NFM) - Valuation Report-  January 2021

NFM’s revenue has been gradually falling over the past 5 years as its “Feed” and “Other” segments saw average annual declines of approximately 8% each. Specifically, declines in the company’s revenue from its Feedmill and Soya sales weighed heaviest on revenue. 

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Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL) - Quarter3 Update-  November 2020

While volumes were down 17.3% due to reduced demand from Point Lisas, TTNGL's underlying holdings, Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited (PPGPL) received gas with 10.4% higher Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) content. PPGPL was also able to generate a 19.6% higher price differential. The company noted that demand has remained relatively steady since the onset of the pandemic. The company also mentioned Phoenix Park Energy Holdings (PPEH) contributed positively to the company's overall performance, though the size of the contribution is likely minimal at this time.

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Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) Update-  November 2020

Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) recorded Revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 (3Q-2020) of $574.1 million, a 7.1% ($37.9m) improvement over the comparative period in 2019. According to the Chairman's report, the growth in revenue was driven by an increase in local rum sales, up 17.4%, and Bitters sales up 4.6% when compared to 3Q-2020

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Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) Update-  November 2020

For the Quarter ended September 30, 2020, GHL saw its EPS grow by 72.5% year on year from $0.80 to $1.38. This was largely credited to the group's insurance activities. Gross Written Premiums increased by 2%, the Property and Casualty (P&C) segment saw increases in all major markets, while Life, Health & Pension (LH&P) segment suffered reduced premiums in T&T.

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The Calypso Macro Index Fund (CALYP)-  November 2020

CALYP is a closed-end mutual fund, denominated in TT dollars, which was launched on January 8, 2016 and is scheduled to terminate on November 30, 2025. Twenty million (20,000,000) units were offered to the public at an offer price of TT$25.00 per unit.

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Budget Highlights: Resetting the Economy for Growth-  October 2020

Finance Minister Colm Imbert presented the 2020/21 Budget on October 5, 2020. During the presentation, it was highlighted that difficult decisions were a long time coming, but finally taken due to the Covid-19 pandemic and its detrimental effects on both the revenue and expenditure side of Government affairs.

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Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago Limited (SBTT)- Quarter 3 Update- September 2020

For the nine months ended July 31st 2020, Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago Limited (SBTT) realized profit attributable to equity holders of $366.1 million, a decline of 30.1% or $157.5 million when compared to the prior year. This translates into a basic EPS of $2.08 (Trailing EPS --$ at the end of the period. SBTT’s quarter and year to date performance have been impacted by reduced economic activity, which has resulted in reduced revenues.

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First Caribbean International Bank Limited (FCI)- Quarter 3 Update- August 2020

For the nine months ended July 31st, 2020 (Q3 2020)2020), FirstCaribbean International Bank (FCI) realized a loss attributable to equity holders of US$43.1 million, a decrease of 135.2% when compared to Q3 2019. This translates into a basic EPS of US$ 0.028 at the end of the period. The decrease in profit was as a result of US$127 million provision for credit losses and a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of US$51 million.

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Telecommunications Services of Trinidad and Tobago (TSTT)- Quarter 2 Update- August 2020

For quarter ended June 30th, 2020 (1Q21), TSTT reported a LAT of TT$83 million, a 1,080% decline from 1Q20 when it reported a PAT of TT$8 million. Revenue for TSTT declined by 16.6% or TT$105 million. The decline in revenue was driven by a 41% decline in revenue from residential copper services, a 4% decline in revenue from wireless services and a 25% decline in revenue from enterprise services. Residential fiber services was the only revenue line to record growth in the quarter (24%).

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Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL) - Quarter 2 Update- August 2020

For the three month period ended June 30th 2020, TTNGL realized profit attributable to equity holders of $7.6 million, a decrease of 72.5% when compared to the prior year. This drop is largely attributable to already depressed natural gas liquid prices experiencing a further shock due to COVID 19, which depressed earnings for TTNGL's underlying holdings, namely Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited (PPGPL).

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Questions with Executives-Angostura

On June 25th, 2020, JMMB Investments issued a Market Perform rating for AHL with a price target of $15.93. The rationale for the rating was the expectation that after the completion of the water treatment plant project, AHL’s profit margins would improve as a result of expense reduction.

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Massy Update- August 2020 

For the Quarter ended June 30th 2020, MASSY realized profit attributable to equity holders of $101.5MM, a decrease of 12% or $13.8MM when compared to the prior year.

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Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) Update- August 2020 

For the six months ended June 30th 2020, Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) realized profit attributable to equity holders of $5.9 million, an increase of $5.6 million over the comparable period in 2019. This translates into a basic EPS of $0.23 at the end of the Total assets stood at $424.1 million as at June 30, 2020, a decrease of 17% when compared to June 2019.

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Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) Update- August 2020 

Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) recorded Revenue for the six months ended June 30th, 2020 (2Q 2020) of $358.5 million, a 3.5% ($12.1m) improvement over the comparative period in 2019. 

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First Citizens Bank (FIRST) Update- August 2020 

The decrease in the target price is based on the cut in dividend (which we expect will be temporary) and a decline in earnings expectations as a result of a threat of a second lockdown due to community spread in Trinidad and Tobago. EPS forecast for year ending September 2020 is revised downward to $2.57.

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Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) Update- August 2020 

For the Quarter ended June 30th 2020, GHL saw its EPS rise by 52.6% year on year from $0.57 to $0.87. This wiped out the $0.16 per share loss in Q1 and can largely be credited to the groups insurance activities. While Net Written Premiums saw a decline of 4.2% owing to difficulties associated with collection due to the pandemic, the group managed to bring down underwriting expenses by 29.3% or $307.6K.

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Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL)- August 2020 

For the nine months ended June 30th 2020, Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL) realized profit attributable to equity holders of $854 million, a decrease of 35.7% or $474 million when compared to the prior year.

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Clico Investment Fund (CIF) Update- August 2020 

In Clico Investment Fund (CIF) Quarterly Financial Statements for period ended March 31st 2020, Republic Financial holdings (RFHL) shares accounted for ~90% of total assets in the fund, the GORTT 2037 Bond accounted for ~9% and the remainder of assets in the fund comprise interest receivables and liquid assets.

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West Indian Tobacco Company (WCO) Half Year Update- July 2020 

Due to COVID 19 prevention measures implemented by the Government, WCO's factory operations were closed for the month of April. The closure negatively affected its exports to Jamaica, Guyana and other Caribbean Islands. According to the Chairman's Review, the distribution of products in the domestic market was severely disrupted by the "stay at home" measures and the closure of the entertainment channels.

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Investor Half Year Review and Outlook- July 2020 

Most stocks retreated in the first half of 2020 (HY2020). The Trinidad & Tobago Composite Index (TTCI) posted negative returns of -10.7% for the period. This was driven by declines across the board as the market was rattled by the COVID-19 prevention measures which were implemented by the government.

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Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL)- July 2020 

GHL’s revenue has been relatively stable over the past 5 years, climbing from $2.2B in FY 2015 to 2.5B in FY 2019. This represents a CAGR of just 2.95% over the 5-year period.

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Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago Limited (SBTT)- July 2020 

Since 2015, SBTT’s Total Assets has grown by approximately TT$ 2.8 billion at a CAGR of 3.8%. The main driver of the increase in Total Assets has been the increase in SBTT’s loan portfolio. Total Loans which is SBTT’s main revenue driver (Accounting for 60% of the Group’s Total Assets on average over the last 5 years) increased at a CAGR of 2.1%. For FY 2019, Total loans increased by 11.3% to TT$ 16.1 billion, the highest it has ever been.

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Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) Update- July 2020 

In our report released on the 26th June, 2020, we indicated that we expected revenue for AHL to fall by -12% in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 prevention measures. We now know that the measures shifted demand for AHL products rather than reducing demand.

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Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL)- June 2020

AHL’s revenue increased by 8.1% to $847.2 million from $783.7 million in the prior year. Its revenue has increased by 36.5% since 2016. According to the CEO’s report, revenue increased in the local and export markets, particularly in the USA market for the bitters brand. Significant growth was also recorded in the UK, Canada and Europe markets.

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Questions with Executives-Unilever

After the release of UCL’s Q1 2020 financial statements JMMB Investments changed its rating on UCL from a Market Perform to an OutPerform rating and maintained the price target at $19.67.

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Massy  Update- Quarter 2 - May 2020

For the Quarter ended March 31st 2020, MASSY realized profit attributable to equity holders of $81.5MM, a decrease of 35.6% or $45MM when compared to the prior year.

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Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) - May 2020

For the quarter ended March 31st 2020, Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) realized profit attributable to equity holders of $4.6 million, an increase of 215.8%. This translates into a basic EPS of $0.17 at the end of the quarter. Total assets stood at $443.6 million as at March 31, 2020, a decrease of 24.2% over March 2019.

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Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL) - Quarter 1 Update- May 2020

For the three month period ended March 31st 2020, TTNGL realized profit attributable to equity holders of $6.9 million, a decrease of almost 85% when compared to the prior year. This drop is largely attributable to already depressed natural gas liquid prices experiencing a further shock due to COVID-19, which depressed earnings for TTNGL's underlying holdings, namely Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited.  

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Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL) - May 2020

For the Financial Year 2019, TTNGL realized profit attributable to equity holders of $129.5 million, a decrease of almost 50% when compared to the prior year.

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First Citizens Bank Limited (FIRST)- May 2020

For the half year ended March 31st 2020, First Citizens Bank (FIRST) realized profit attributable to equity holders of $404.4 million, an increase of 2.4% or $9.4 million when compared to the prior year.

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West Indian Tobacco Company (WCO) Quarterly Update- April 2020

For the quarter ended March 31st 2020, West Indian Tobacco Company (WCO) realized profit attributable to equity holders of $104.9 million, an increase of 4.9%.

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Clico Investment Fund (CIF) - April 2020

CIF utilises the dividend it receives from RFHL and the coupon payments it receives from the GORTT 2037 Bond to pay dividend to its unit holders. Hence, a cut in RFHL's Dividend will likely affect distributions to CIF unitholders.

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Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL) - April 2020

The Board of Directors of RFHL has declared a reduced interim dividend of $0.60 (2019: $1.25) per share payable on June 5, 2020.

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Telecommunications Services of Trinidad and Tobago (TSTT) COVID-19 Update- April 2020

The Telecommunications industry is an industry which has been in the spotlight more than others due to the impact of COVID-19 prevention measures.

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First Caribbean International Bank Limited (FCI)- April 2020

For the quarter ended January 2020 (Q1-2020), FCI realized profit attributable to equity holders of US$51.4 million, an increase of 128.4% when compared to Q1-2019. 

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Market Update- Bank of Jamaica Notice - April 2020

“Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) has been closely monitoring the current impact of the novel COVID-19 virus pandemic on the global and domestic financial system.

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The West Indian Tobacco Company Limited (WCO) Review - April 2020

For the Financial Year ended December 2019, WCO realized profit attributable to equity holders of $418.2 million, an increase of 3.2%.

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COVID-19 Fixed Income Impact - April 2020

In our 2020 outlook earlier this year, we made mention of the US yield curve inversion in 2019, and how its occurrence has preceded each of the last 7 recessions in the US dating back to 1950.

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Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) - April 2020

Revenue for all three segments declined significantly over the 5-year period. The Food and Refreshments segment, the second largest contributor to revenue, declined by the largest margin, falling by 62% over the period but this was mainly due to the divestment of the spreads business.

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COVID-19 Impact on Equity Valuations- March 2020

In this uncertain time, you may witness stocks, bonds or other assets being sold and purchased at below its intrinsic value. Intrinsic value means the inherent worth of an asset in dollars and cents and may differ from price.

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COVID-19 Stimulus Package- March 2020

The Trinidad and Tobago Government has acted early by announcing their own sweeping stimulus package to deal with the impact of COVID-19.

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COVID-19 Portfolio Impact- March 2020

With the recent official announcements of the imported cases of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) to Trinidad & Tobago, many are asking about the impact to their savings and investments, and what opportunities may lie ahead.

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FIRST  Update- Quarter 1 - February 2020

For the Quarter ended December 2019, FIRST realized profit attributable to equity holders of $222.6 million, an increase of 3.8% or $8.1 million when compared to the prior year.

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Massy  Update- Quarter 1 - February 2020

For the Quarter ended December 2019, realized profit attributable to equity holders profit attributable to equity $153.8MM, an increase of 15.1% when compared to the prior year. 

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NGL Limited Investor Update- February 2020

On February 1st, 2020 Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited [PPGPL] through its US subsidiary Phoenix Park Energy Marketing LLC [PPEM] completed the acquisition of Twin Eagle Liquids Marketing LLC [Twin Eagles]. Twin Eagle is a company based in Houston, Texas, USA and is engaged in the business of marketing, trading and transportation of natural gas liquids in Canada, USA and Mexico via rail.

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Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL) Quarter 1 Update- January 2020

For the quarter ended December 2019, RFHL realized profit attributable to equity profit to equity holders of $373.9 million, an increase 6.7% or 23.3 million when compared to the of $373.9 million, $373.9 million, an increase 6.7% or 23.3 million when compared to the prior year. This translates into a basic EPS of $2.30 prior year.

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First Citizens Bank Limited (FIRST)- January 2020

The First Citizens Group (FIRST) is one of the leading financial services groups in Trinidad & Tobago. It offers a full range of retail, corporate and merchant banking services as well as asset management, trustee and brokerage services. The Group is headquartered in Trinidad & Tobago.

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Sagicor Financial Corporation- January 2020

Sagicor Investor Update in November 2019, shareholders who opted for some portion of share consideration should have started receiving their Direct Registration System [DRS] statement detailing the number of Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) listed shares owned in “New Sagicor”

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Investor review and outlook for 2019/2020- January 2020

Stocks rallied on the local market in 2019. The Trinidad & Tobago Composite Index (TTComp.) posted returns of 12.7% in 2019.

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MASSY Holdings LTD (MASSY) - January 2020

The Massy Group, which has been in operation since 1923, is a diversified regional conglomerate with operations throughout the Caribbean basin, Colombia and South Florida. The Group’s main segments are automotive and industrial equipment, retail and distribution, energy, financial services and ICT.

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JMMBITT  Year-End Review- December 2019

In final quarter of final quarter of2019, JMMB Investments released BUY or SELL recommendations on 6 securities; 4 BUYS and 2 SELLS. Five out of the six calls ma2019, JMMB Investments released BUY or SELL recommendations on 6 securities; 4 BUYS and 2 SELLS.

Five out of the six calls ma2019, JMMB Investments released BUY or SELL recommendations on 6 securities; 4 BUYS and 2 SELLS.

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